This article is written by Alanna Markle and Dexter Docherty, who work as Strategic Foresight Analysts, in the Strategic Foresight Unit of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
- The problem: Governments are currently making unprecedented interventions in order to address and recover from the Covid-19 pandemic that will have repercussions for decades to come. How can we develop policies that will be successful in the long-term given significant global uncertainty?
- Why it matters: In order to address global challenges such as the climate crisis and inequality, governments must find a way to make sure that decisions made today lay the foundation for success tomorrow.
- The solution: Strategic foresight scenarios enable government policies to be better equipped to handle disruptive changes that may occur in the future, helping to ensure long-term policy success.
This year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) celebrates the 60th anniversary of its founding. At this crossroads, OECD leadership commissioned a set of scenarios to help the Organisation to identify possible future challenges and to imagine new ways of achieving better policies for better lives. This article briefly describes the scenarios and the process of developing and using them at the OECD. The purpose is to illustrate strategic foresight in action, and to draw lessons for how it can be used in public sector institutions to help prepare for an uncertain future.
Government departments around the world can create more future-ready policies and strategies by undertaking their own foresight processes or integrating scenario planning into existing policy processes.
Three scenarios for the international system
Strategic foresight is a structured approach to exploring possible future changes and their implications for decision making today. It entails scanning the horizon for new developments and emerging trends, constructing alternative scenarios about what future changes could occur, and designing forward-looking strategies for advancing values and objectives under a wide range of possible circumstances. While developed for the OECD, the international focus of our Global Scenarios 2035 makes them applicable to many global organisations and governments.
Multitrack World explores a scenario where humanity has formed into several separate and largely parallel clusters, each operating within its own data infrastructure and digital ecosystem. This scenario raises questions about how the OECD could best serve as a bridge between competing entities, and how to advance universal global principles in a context of potentially diverging values and definitions of well-being.
Virtual Worlds explores a scenario where the majority of human experience takes place in highly immersive and engaging virtual reality spaces, and where there is strong pressure by citizens for such spaces to be globally connected and interoperable. This scenario raises questions about what kinds of governance may be needed to address policy issues in and concerning virtual space, and what relationships with non-state actors the OECD may need to make an effective contribution to global collaboration in this newly dominant dimension of human life.
Vulnerable World explores a scenario where humanity faces a number of critical existential threats and opportunities that require an unprecedented level of near-perfect global collaboration in order to safeguard its vital common interests. This scenario raises questions of how effective governance of the global commons can be realised in these key areas, and the potential contribution of the OECD.
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The scenario process
The content of these scenarios can be used to stimulate discussion on the future of issues such as evidence-based policy-making, well-being and global governance. However, some of the most valuable learnings for public servants who are interested in applying foresight may lie in understanding the elements of the scenario process. The following are some key steps in our process, along with lessons for new or aspiring practitioners:
Horizon scanning
Horizon scanning is the active effort to look for signals of change. We used horizon scanning throughout our project to develop and refine a set of drivers of change in the international context. We revised our drivers through consultation with experts from multiple OECD directorates to identify new signals in their focus areas and future trends that could emerge.
Lesson 1: Scanning lays the base for good foresight. It should be ongoing and push practitioners beyond their silos. Scanning benefits from collaboration within and outside the project team, and can be organised by a framework like STEEG (society, technology, environment, economy, governance).
Prototypes based on assumptions
The scenarios started as one-paragraph prototypes targeted at challenging specific assumptions about the future that could have far-reaching implications for the OECD. Examples of assumptions include unity among OECD membership, modest growth in policy issues related to virtual life, and that shared global challenges in the future will be of a similarly surmountable nature to those of the past.
Lesson 2: Challenging assumptions is one of strategic foresight’s most important functions. While the horizon scanning process should be open and far-reaching, the assumptions and uncertainties that are most relevant to the project should guide what content is ultimately included in a set of scenarios.
Peer consultations
We road-tested and expanded these prototypes through research, workshops and focus group interviews with peers. Consultations included senior foresight colleagues from our global Government Foresight Community such as the United States National Intelligence Council and Policy Horizons Canada. In addition, we secured reviews from OECD staff at all levels and from across directorates.
Lesson 3: Foresight is a participatory practice. A scenarios process that includes consultation with multiple stakeholders is more likely to achieve depth and rigour. It also generates buy in, as stakeholders are more likely to want to engage with scenarios that reflect their perspectives to an extent.
Next generation perspectives
The scenario process included multi-generational perspectives. We worked with students from EMLYON business school, the University of Oxford and the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, who provided fresh content insights and even some of our titles. In addition, we got facilitation support at our report launch from Next Generation Foresight Practitioners.
Lesson 4: A diversity of views is critical. This starts with including people of varying backgrounds and seniority from the organisation, and who bring challenging perspectives. However, it can also be valuable to reach out externally to groups whose perspectives may otherwise go underrepresented.
Co-developed strategic considerations
The concluding section of the global scenarios report reflects initial considerations for the organisation based on collated insights from strategic foresight workshops and interviews with OECD staff, Ambassadors, senior management, and stakeholders such as development foundations. These workshops explored what the implications of the scenarios could be for the Organisation’s purpose, values, relationships and operations; as well as actions it can start taking today to be more prepared. Finally, the report launch built on the initial considerations in the paper, by including over 20 facilitated breakout sessions that allowed attendees to continue the conversation in small groups.
Lesson 5: A scenario process is only complete after the scenarios have been used for their intended purpose. This purpose can vary, from enhancing organisational strategy to stress-testing a proposed policy. Regardless, it is not enough simply to produce scenarios, their value lies in their application.
The integration of strategic foresight is an emerging best practice for ensuring the long-term success of policies and organisations. The COVID-19 crises have further underscored the need for governments to be ready for the unexpected, and to build resilience to future disruptions. Our recent scenario process has helped partners internal and external to the OECD make sense of some of the major uncertainties that underlie global collaboration in the medium- to long-term.
Government departments around the world can create more future-ready policies and strategies by undertaking their own foresight processes or integrating scenario planning into existing policy processes. — Alanna Markle and Dexter Docherty
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