This article is written by Jeanette Kwek and Seema Gail Parkash, Head and Deputy Head, Centre for Strategic Futures, Singapore.

“We are not only living in a world of accelerating changes but also of changes which are global in scope and which permeate almost all aspects of human activity... only a future-oriented society can cope with the problems of the 21st century.” — Mr S. Rajaratnam in 1979, then-Foreign Minister of Singapore.

Planning for the future has always been critical to the work of government. Yet, the inherent — and growing — complexity of systems makes it impossible to predict the future. How then can governments best prepare for the future, given that there will inevitably be changes and surprises in the operating context along the way?

For over 40 years, strategic foresight has helped the Singapore government go beyond prevailing assumptions, better manage risk and uncertainty, and develop greater resilience to possible shocks. As our operating context has evolved, so too has our practice of strategic foresight. However, two fundamental principles — discovery and experimentation, and the importance of networks — have continued to underpin our work.

Strategic foresight in the policy planning process

As the Singapore government’s foresight think-tank, the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) focuses on open-ended, longer-term research to help inform public policy thinking, discover blind-spots and encourage more robust decision-making. The work we do serves three important functions in the whole-of-government strategic planning process: “Scout”, “Challenge” and “Grow”.

Grow involves building capability and capacity for strategic foresight at all levels in the wider public service. Through this, we can align how we think about the future, even if there is little agreement on what we think the future will be

Scout involves scanning for signals of change in Singapore’s operating context — typically a small or local innovation or disruption that has the potential to grow in scale and geographic distribution — and assessing if they present what we call “Emerging Strategic Issues” (ESIs). These are nascent issues with unclear trajectories that could present new challenges or opportunities for Singapore. As these issues develop, we conduct deep dives to understand key implications for public policy and communicate them to our stakeholders. ESIs in the past year include the rising popularity of new eco-friendly alternatives to conventional burial and cremation, the “Boomer Blockade” hitting ageing economies and emergent digital therapies for stress and anxiety popular among digital natives — who mostly comprise the Millennial and Generation Z cohorts.

The challenge is how to help the public policy community rethink existing assumptions, stress-test current policies, or develop new strategies as our context changes. This is where we have found scenario planning to be tremendously helpful.

Finally, Grow involves building capability and capacity for strategic foresight at all levels in the wider public service. Through this, we can align how we think about the future, even if there is little agreement on what we think the future will be.

To deliver on these core functions, we have experimented with various foresight tools and methodologies, and practised agile prototyping and quick feedback loops for our products. We also rely on new insights and “outside-in” perspectives gleaned through our international networks, which help to counter group-think.

Applying strategic foresight to a world with Covid-19

We realised quite early on that the Covid-19 pandemic could have profound and complex effects on societies, economies and the environment.

As such, we had a role to play, to help our colleagues look beyond the immediate crisis and consider the medium-term impacts of Covid-19. Existing strategies were being adjusted on a near-daily basis to cope with immediate problems, but new options would be needed for longer-term shifts that would follow. As foresight practitioners, we at the CSF are more accustomed to looking at the 10- to 20-year time horizon, not the 2- to 5-year horizon. But strategic foresight requires agility in sense-making.  Hence, we set out to examine how Covid-19 might reshape the world in the medium term.

Our Covid-19 products — and more broadly strategic foresight work — have led to richer government-wide dialogue about the futures that Singapore might have to confront and how best to do so, therefore resulting in more robust policy-making

Given the dynamic and evolving situation, we first had to decide what analyses and products would be most immediately useful for our policymaker audience. We agreed that a “perpetual beta” approach — releasing early versions and refining them continuously —  made the most sense, giving us the flexibility to adapt our material as the situation developed. We started by examining where Covid-19 was impacting existing trends or introducing new ones; how these trends were interacting and what the more unfamiliar or urgent uncertainties were. From this, we articulated five shifts in the operating context in the medium to long term. The assessments were informed by signals observed during the pandemic, ideas put forth by experts and commentators, internal workshops, including with the wider futures community within the government, and discussions with external interlocutors.

This approach presented a challenge in highlighting specific understudied issues that might have particularly salient implications for Singapore and addressing them in sufficient depth. This prompted us to complement discussion of the broad shifts with more frequent Covid-19 “issue briefs”. Each issue brief focuses on a specific topic and plausible trajectories, and most importantly, dives into specific public policy questions for Singapore. These issue briefs are deliberately designed to echo policy briefs in form, making them feel familiar and relevant; and therefore easier for the policy community to engage with.

Preparing for what tomorrow holds

Some might ask what our Covid-19 products have done to help Singapore better prepare for the impact of Covid-19. It is, as always, difficult to point to a single decision and say that it is the result of the CSF’s work. However, our Covid-19 products — and more broadly strategic foresight work — have led to richer government-wide dialogue about the futures that Singapore might have to confront and how best to do so,  therefore resulting in more robust policy-making. Better decision-making today will better prepare us all for the future, whatever it may bring. — Jeanette Kwek and Seema Gail Parkash

(Picture credit: Unsplash)