This article is written by Alanna Markle, Strategic Foresight Junior Analyst, on behalf of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Strategic Foresight Unit.

Think back to your January 2020 self. What have you learned since that you would not have thought possible then?

Crises like the coronavirus pandemic force us to recognise uncertainty by jolting us out of the comfort of our expected future. Yet uncertainty about the future is endemic to decision making, even under the best conditions. In an environment that rewards clear answers and decisive action, acknowledging uncertainty can feel like a threat, but making space for the exploration of uncertainty is critical for responsible policy making.

Many governments underperform in preparing for and responding to unexpected, unprecedented, or unconventional developments. One reason is that the uncertainties and assumptions that underlie government decision making often go unacknowledged or unexplored. As a result, strategies pursued by governments can fall short of delivering desired outcomes – or even prove counterproductive – if the assumptions these strategies are based on turn out to be incorrect.

Identifying this problem is easy. But what can public servants do about it?

Strategic foresight is an approach to strengthening decision making in the face of uncertainty. It is based on the principle that making responsible and effective policy requires us to consider and prepare for a wide range of possible future developments and their implications.

The following initial steps can build strategic foresight capacity and help public servants to both recognise and navigate uncertainty.

1. Form a more complete and flexible mental picture of the future by asking: what trends and early signals of change are on the horizon?

Foresight starts with horizon scanning. First consider long-term, large-scale and well-evidenced trends with origins in the past, while recognising that they may or may not continue. Then look beyond past trends and scan for weak signals of new or emerging change. Weak signals are changes observed in the present that, if they grew, could have a surprising or significant impact.

Discussing the future as a space where multiple alternatives are possible allows us to identify implications for how to design policies that can hold up under a range of future conditions

2. Make assumptions explicit by asking: what are some commonly held expectations about the future of the policy area or issue at hand?

Making underlying assumptions explicit creates an opening for challenging them. Current analyses, policies, debates, media and internal discussions reveal commonly held assumptions that shape expectations. It is important to surface assumptions one believes, as well as those about which one is sceptical.

3. Derive key uncertainties from assumptions by asking: what would the antithesis to this assumption be?

Identify contradictory or outlier positions to common assumptions and determine if there is evidence for their plausibility. A key uncertainty is one where there is significant disagreement and a high divergence of views among well-informed observers about what could happen in the future. To be relevant for policy, key uncertainties must have a potentially high level of bearing on one’s policy area, either directly or indirectly. They must also have multiple logical pathways and be supported by signals of change from the present.

4. Use key uncertainties to elaborate multiple future pathways by asking: what plausible developments could follow from this uncertainty?

Discussing the future as a space where multiple alternatives are possible allows us to identify implications for how to design policies that can hold up under a range of future conditions. Plausible developments can take the form of “what if” questions that adopt either one side or perspective on a key uncertainty. Use weak signals to anchor the imagined future to a presently observable reality.

Strategic foresight is necessarily a collaborative activity; valuable insights can be gained through workshops and other participatory processes that create an interaction between multiple different perspectives

5. Consider cascading impacts of plausible developments through “if-then” statements.

Start with a simple “if-then” statement of the form “If this plausible development occurred, then it could lead to…” Then take your answer and repeat the process to explore possible second and third-order impacts, cascading further out into the future. Prompt yourself to explore potential consequences across multiple issue areas. Flowcharts and mind-mapping tools can be useful in this process.

6. Explore strategic implications by asking: what new challenges and opportunities could emerge for policy makers under each of these plausible futures?

The ultimate aim of this exercise is to reveal novel challenges and opportunities that might otherwise go unnoticed, and to create an enabling space for insights and innovations in response. In this way, foresight becomes strategic. Consider how current plans or objectives could be invalidated if assumptions prove untrue. Use the recognition of uncertainty to spur more creative thinking about solutions. Develop “no regrets” strategies that respond positively to multiple plausible developments. Harvest practical implications for upcoming programmes of work.

While it is useful to work through the above steps alone as an individual analyst, we encourage you to include your colleagues in the process. Strategic foresight is necessarily a collaborative activity; valuable insights can be gained through workshops and other participatory processes that create an interaction between multiple different perspectives.

The OECD Strategic Foresight Unit helps governments better anticipate and prepare for uncertain and turbulent futures, with a particular focus on cross-cutting medium- to longer-term issues. To find out more about how we can help to strengthen policy making processes in your government or organisation, visit our website or contact us at foresight@oecd.org. — Alanna Markle

The June 2020 paper “Strategic Foresight for the Covid-19 Crisis and beyond: Using futures thinking to design better public policies” demonstrates the use of strategic foresight in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. You are invited to submit key uncertainties and plausible developments for a second version of the paper through 30 September 2020 (e-mail alanna.markle@oecd.org).

(Picture credit: Unsplash)