Rural retirement hotspots are facing rapidly ageing populations — government must start responding

This opinion piece was written by Wesley Key, senior lecturer in social policy at the University of Lincoln.

Ageing populations are a familiar concern in most nations of the world. But politicians and service planners in many places have been slow to respond to the challenges that this demographic shift presents.

A report from the UK House of Lords in 2013 argued that the British government was “woefully underprepared” for the country’s rapid ageing.

And the challenge will be particularly acute in some parts of the country. Whilst the number of people aged 90-plus will rise sharply almost everywhere in the country through to the 2030s, the change will vary markedly between localities.

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That makes it necessary to identify the districts which will have the highest concentrations of ‘oldest old’ people, so that government can put in place appropriate, affordable policy solutions.

UN estimates suggest that most European nations will see a large increase in the proportion of their populations aged 85-plus by 2035. Italy, France, Sweden and Germany among the nations set to have over 4% of their populations aged over 85 by 2035.

Considerable pressures are already being placed on public service provision by population ageing and austerity programmes. So it is imperative that national and local service planners are ready to deal with the rapid projected further growth in the share of the population comprised of the very oldest age groups.

Analysis of population projections for the period from 2014 to 2039, produced by the Office for National Statistics, suggests that by 2039, 19 local authorities in England will have at least 4% of their resident populations aged 90 or over. These tend to be more rural areas: 12 London boroughs and the city of Manchester, by contrast, are projected to have less than 1% of their populations aged 90-plus.

The local authorities with the highest projected concentrations of people aged 90-plus fall into three broad categories: coastal retirement hotspots in the south of England, affluent districts in the Midlands, and northern districts close to areas of natural beauty.

Greying fast: highest projected shares of 90+ residents

Many of these areas are characterised by low population density, poor access to public transport and high levels of car dependency. Furthermore, desirable coastal and rural localities often have high house prices and high rates of second home ownership — which can deprive these areas of younger adults to provide care and support to their growing 90-plus populations.

To prepare for these expected increases in the 90-plus population — and the concomitant rises in demand for health and social care and other services — local authority service planners need to do several things.

First, they should work with local voluntary sector groups to maximise, via home visit programmes, take-up of means-tested and disability benefit entitlements by the 90-plus age group. Home visits are crucial because this population are less likely to be able to use the internet or automated telephone services than any other age group.

Second, planners need to promote and increase the awareness of demand-responsive transport provision, such as Call Connect, a minibus system booked by passengers across Lincolnshire, in the east of England. These services are vital to enabling mobility for the oldest-old population.

Third, governments should aim, as far as possible, to create a “One Stop Shop” to provide information for local older residents. This would make it easier for the elderly population to access information about later life priorities such as Home Improvement Agencies, grants to pay for home adaptations, social group meetings (e.g. Over 60s clubs, Day Centres) and local agencies providing domiciliary care. And they should be delivered in innovative ways to make them more readily accessible — for example, by locating them in GP surgeries.

In the longer term, the rise in the 90-and-over population will require larger-scale action from national policymakers. There are a bevy of policy responses that government may need to draw on.

They might include raising the state pension age, to reflect how life expectancy is set to rise beyond 90 in the UK and many other developed nations.

It should also mean working to improve diagnosis of dementia. The prevalence of dementia rises significantly above the age of 85 — the population most likely to live alone and rarely leave their home.

The complex relationship between health and social care for older people will also need to be carefully addressed, to ensure that both remain affordable for taxpayers as well as users. The potential for private or social insurance models to reduce costs will become increasingly important.

Finally, the fact that many people of working age cannot afford to live in the coastal and upland areas of natural beauty that are popular with retirees demands a policy response. The retired population’s need for care and support from working age adults — whether as paid carers, volunteers or family members — will only grow in the decades to come, so closing this affordability gap will be crucial.

It is therefore clear that the 2020s must be the decade in which politicians and service planners, both locally and nationally, start to develop coherent, multi-agency strategies for managing the increase in Britain’s “oldest-old”. — Wesley Key

(Picture credit: Pexels)