This article is written by Melodena Stephens, Professor of Innovation Management, Mohammed Bin Rashid School of Government, Dubai, UAE.

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An agile government — which is not the same as agile transformation, often associated with technology — delivers public value through three pillars. These are:

  • Future-proof policies. Taking the uncertainty of the future into account in the policy design.
  • Trust-based processes. Governments have captive audiences (citizens are the principal user group), and this makes trust even more vital.
  • The ability to solve wicked problems. Wicked problems are, by nature, challenging to articulate, find solutions to, and get the required buy-in to solve.

So far, the concept of agile government has been only successful at a departmental level or in small projects, not on a nation-wide scale. But the impact of Covid-19 might change that.

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This rapidly evolving pandemic, which began in December in one region in China and spread to over 180 countries in 4 months, has led to the closing of borders, physical isolation, and total revamping of regulations in health testing, human rights, education certifications and data privacy. The costs will run into the trillions of dollars, and other adverse effects are likely to include unemployment, more stringent border regulations, disruption of industries and reorganization of the supply chain, mental trauma, civil security, and — most importantly — loss of human lives.

Future-Proof Policies are a function of Systems Thinking.

Clearly, there are some things even the smartest policymakers can’t predict.

If you looked at the World Economic Forum's top ten global risks over the last decade, pandemics were mentioned once and only in 2015. France's Health Minister Olivier Vérantold told his national Parliament on March 19, "It was decided in 2011 and 2013 that there was no longer a need to keep massive stocks of masks, considering that factories could deliver quite quickly, namely in China."

Covid-19 is a black swan — a rare, unpredictable, and high impact event.

This crisis requires systems thinking with a clear agenda of the outcome — saving lives is always the best way to begin and then, second, saving livelihoods. It cannot depend on economic models, expert group recommendations (who have the same facts), or our standards of what worked in the past (SARS or Ebola did not prepare us enough).

Systems thinking allows you to connect diverse pieces of knowledge together and make sense. Take, for example, the few facts that all governments had at the start of this pandemic:

  1. The disease required speed of response as patients had difficulty breathing (videos showed them dropping down on the roads — so clearly it was not like the usual pneumonia flu).
  2. Patients needed to be put on respirators; therefore, you required ICU beds, ICU personnel, personal with intubation experience.
  3. The disease had a high rate of infection; therefore you required protective gear and disposal of hazardous material including special handling of the diseased)
  4. You had no clear idea of propagation of the disease in the initial days, so you required isolation and contact tracing.
  5. This epidemic was an event aligned with the Chinese New Year, a big holiday, and therefore needed some regulations of international travel.

This logic seems simple - which would mean most governments should have been prepared for the pandemic, yet worldwide we see many countries were not prepared for Covid-19.

Another example of systems thinking is the coordinated and proactive response that both Singapore and the UAE have shown. As key logistics hubs with food security issues, closing their borders would have severe consequences. They began with strict monitoring and contact tracing, and while they limited mobility and international traffic into the country, the trade routes for cargo were open.

Both countries were prepared for the crisis. Singapore had its experience with SARS and the UAE deployed the crisis plans ready for the World Expo under the City Readiness Committee that was set up in March 2019, which coordinates at the local and federal level. They already had strong state-level inter-organizational collaborative teams present. For example, Dubai (UAE), had the Events Security Committee (created in 2008) that Dubai Police manages, and consists of members from each entity of the Dubai government. The National Emergency Crisis and Disaster's Management Authority (set up in 2007), works at the Federal Level.

Crises are characterized by scarcity of information, conflicting information or information overload, making it difficult to know what and whom to believe.

In 2016, the UK ran a national pandemic flu exercise and found that they were unprepared for a massive requirement of ventilators. The UK has since used agility in its responses, defaulting to a war-mechanism to set up field hospitals and mobilize the supply chain for products necessary for Covid-19.

Systems thinking requires both agility and creativity in decision making. This is a trait that few people have the ability for, and it is incredibly valuable. Governments need to find these individuals and harness their talent during times of crisis.

Trust-based systems are a function of transparency

Trust, under normal conditions, is the credit citizens extend to their governments. Trust is earned and maintained through transparency in communication and fairness in actions. When that trust is undermined, governments may tumble and fall.

Crises are characterized by scarcity of information, conflicting information or information overload making it difficult to know what and whom to believe. In these situations, governments should focus on presenting information that is factual (less is better than wrong information) and foster those types of communication that help build faith in government actions.

There are several ways agile governments can build trust. One way is transparency. In Singapore, the Prime Minister would regularly brief the country. Though many countries leaders do this — the public is primarily looking for messages that show concern for the citizens and the government actions being taken to that effect. The key objective in these communications is empathy, leadership and inclusiveness. To not leave anyone behind — the elderly, ethnic minorities, or people without a strong family network.

Data transparency is critical in building trust. It gives some semblance of control. In Singapore, citizens could download TraceTogether, a voluntary mobile app used to manage contact tracing. Here there was a co-creation in data and this allowed the citizen to participate. The initial Covid-19 dashboards focussed on deaths and infections. Infections kept increasing as more people were tested and death did not capture those that had recovered. Making information easy to access but also presenting a fair picture of reality is critical during a crisis where hysteria can result in paralysis. Tokyo, Japan, has an open source Open Data website for Covid, launched on 3 March that shared vital information in a user-friendly way. It was managed with volunteers to ensure that it did not strain local government and by sharing the source code, it allowed innovation and participation of the public.

Governments need to think both fast and long-term and get a team to deconstruct a wicked problem quickly.

Trust is built through leadership in action, where we are looking for transparency of intent. For example, in Korea, all election campaigning went online before social distancing measures were put in place. Leaders who adopted new practices they expected their citizens to follow showed leadership by example — not shaking hands, practising social distancing, wearing masks or being self-quarantined. This behaviour can add to (or detract from) the legitimacy of their governments.

A crisis will test the culture and values you have internally in your country, and the care you extend to the other countries and their people. As a nation, you might have ticked a box, but as a world we are working together on a common problem, and if we can’t all tick that box — in this case eradicating Covid-19 — we have failed. During a crisis and post-crisis, trust is earned by the transparency of communication and actions and intents. It will affect society, investors, and future visitors.

Agile governments know how to work with wicked problems

By nature, wicked problems are difficult to define, and symptoms tend to prevent us from finding the root causes of the problem. They are not easy to find solutions for or get alignment with key stakeholders.

Unfortunately, the unintended consequence of good intentions for governments may not be enough to keep trust. So you may order a landlord to cease taking rent, but if he needs to repay a loan to a bank that is still collecting fees and has a penalty, this is a problem. You may give free Covid-19 testing but what about the costly ICU fees that need to be paid by someone who does not have the money? This is an issue. Governments need to think both fast and long-term and get a team to deconstruct a wicked problem quickly.

A health epidemic quickly spilled over to trade embargoes, people profiling (for example the Wuhan virus has been associated with people of Chinese descent), travel hiatus, economic crisis, political crisis, and if we are not careful will lead to civil unrest. Of course, there are positive outcomes — as societies locked down, air pollution fell accordingly, proving that we could at least temporarily manage with lower consumption and travel. It seems ironic that what all the countries could not agree about around a table for years, a virus achieved for us in three short months. Of course, this requires us to look at the other side of the table, unemployment and the disparity in health, income and education.

Covid-19 will redefine what we think of as "normal"

We need to look forward to a world post Covid-19 that has exposed the limitations of global competitive ranking reports, the inequality, and constraints of global health coverage, the inability of borders to prevent a health crisis, and the need for good citizenship behaviours for resilient societies. Though individual countries may have done a great job managing the pandemic, as a world, we have failed to work together.

Towards a new normal?

For the future — Covid-19 will redefine what we think of as "normal." The speed at which policies are adapted, the impact monitored, and the ability to find the new normal is what will define future-proof systems. It will lead to the reorganization of supply chains; more health controls when crossing borders, acquisition of strategic IP by foresighted countries. Hopefully, it will push universal health coverage, reiterate the need for greater societal cohesiveness, lead to an age of innovation, and redefine the purpose of education. Perhaps it is wishful thinking. — Melodena Stephens

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(Picture credit: Death to the stock photo)