The policy of the inevitable endangers democracy in Brazil

This article is written by Elisabete Ferrarezi,PhD in Sociology and Master’s in public administration. Elisabete is a specialist in public policy and management of the Federal Government of Brazil, and has experience in planning, design and management of public policies, social development, innovation labs and civil service training.

The problem: The growing anti-democratic policy in the world and the policy of the inevitable have prevented us from imagining a future with political possibilities.

Why it matters: To imagine the future, we must fight the idea of inevitability and the vision of catastrophe because if the future is threatening, we avoid thinking about it.

The solution: Strengthen the process of interrupted democratisation in Brazil, design desirable futures with the citizens and create a pact on necessary public policies in the context of crises.

The growing anti-democratic policy plaguing the world and the idea that the future is given, or is threatening, has prevented us from imagining a future with political possibilities.

The instruments used by autocratic regimes are, in general, the repression of civil society, censorship of the media, attacks on formal institutions, and political polarisation that invokes disrespect to opponents, and disseminates fake news and hate speech.

This pattern has been strongly manifested in Brazil in recent years, as revealed by the confrontations of the Federal Government with Judiciary, its attacks on the press, science, human rights, the electoral system and disruptions to public management. According to the report of the V-Dem Institute, Brazil is the fourth country that has distanced itself from democracy in 2021 in a ranking of 202 countries analysed.

To imagine the future, we must fight the idea of inevitability, the discourse of eternity and the vision of catastrophe.

Timothy Snyder's hypothesis [1] of the end of history suggests that liberal democracies and capitalism represent the end of humanity's evolution. This is based on the idea that the future is the repetition of the present, and the "laws" of the market would become too powerful for anything else to be done.

This he calls the ‘policy of the inevitable’. The possibility of generating new ideas is denied and the civic responsibility to promote change disappears. But fewer and fewer people believe that the future holds something better for them. And from there can come into play, according to the author, the policy of eternity in which the government builds a myth of innocence and danger, and can only take precautions against threats, inserting society into a cyclical pattern of victimisation. In it, politicians fabricate crises, daily dramas, enemies, and manipulate feelings, in renunciation of the truth of the facts.

The strategies are similar in the case of Brazil and many other countries. Invoking feelings (such as those of a fictitious glorious past of the dictatorship), manipulating facts and beliefs (such as vaccines), and fabricating enemies (good versus evil - opponents and critics), have been used effectively by the current President of Brazil (2019-2022). Democracy is being eroded from within, and many don't recognise the risks of this process because without democracy the idea of a preferable future will disappear from political thought, and imprison us in the present.

We need to rescue our ability to communicate and debate with those who think differently from us.

To imagine the future, we must fight the idea of inevitability, the discourse of eternity and the vision of catastrophe because if the future is threatening, we kill hope and avoid thinking about it. So instead of thinking about the probable, which limits alternatives and discourages action, we can have the ambition to design desirable futures, a pact on necessary public policies in the context of crises. First, however, we have the civic duty to strengthen the process of interrupted democratisation in Brazil, without which there will be no space to create possibilities, expand or guarantee the rights of citizens.

We can plan with a common purpose towards preferable futures, designing solutions together with citizens and institutions, expanding the possibilities of action that generate public value and promote development.

We need to rescue our ability to communicate and debate with those who think differently from us. Identifying the moral foundations that nondemocrats use for membership could be useful in devising discursive strategies to counter reactionaries and bring back hope for a better future. Being at odds, but generating understanding, without the current manichaeism, will require other tactics, far beyond the cancellation of the media, which keeps us trapped in the toxic polarisation of being in the present and in the past.

With Lula’s victory in the elections and his commitment to the future of citizens, an opportunity to rebuild democracy, institutions and public policies has been born and will strengthen the rule of law.

This article was adapted from the original in Desmonte de políticas públicas no Brasil: contribuições técnicas para o debate. Associação Nacional dos Especialistas em Políticas Públicas e Gestão Governamental. Brasília: ANESP, 2022.

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