This post is written by Katrina Guanio, senior programme officer at the University of the Philippines Centre International de Formation des Autorités et Leaders (UP-CIFAL) Philippines.

  • The problem: The impacts of climate change, as well as the anticipation of climate risks, are increasingly influencing people’s decision to move.

  • Why it matters: Current global estimates suggest that there will be more than 200 million internal climate migrants by 2050.

  • The solution: Climate justice entails green migration governance, which recognises resilience-building as a priority adaptation strategy. Migration should be the last resort, and it should be safe, orderly, and dignified.

Human mobility and climate change have had complex interactions for as long as civilisations have existed. People move in response to, or in anticipation of, climate risks. Climate change is never the singular driver of human mobility. Rather, climate and environmental factors are risk multipliers that interconnect with economic, political, cultural, and demographic factors shaping people’s intention and decision to move from or stay in their locations of origin. These complex interactions result in uneven distribution of risks, exacerbated vulnerabilities, and limited availability of choices to people affected by the adverse impacts of climate change.

In its 2020 mid-year report, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) provided a global estimate of 23.9 million total new displacements due to weather events such as storms, floods, hurricanes, and typhoons. According to the 2021 World Bank report, more than 200 million people are estimated to move within their countries or become internal climate migrants by 2050.

"much has to be done to ensure decisive and collective climate action in relation to migration"

While the majority of climate migrants move within their countries due to sudden-onset events, some populations will be forced to move to other countries or cross-border due to the impacts of slower-onset events such as droughts, desertification, loss of biodiversity, land and forest degradation, and rising sea levels.

Calls from COP26

In the recently concluded 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26), the International Organization for Migration (IOM) called for increasing adaptation measures in resilience-building as well as minimising displacement of the most vulnerable populations. This is not the first time that the migration, environment, and climate change nexus has been articulated in the global discourse. In COP18 back in 2012, the international community recognised the need to amplify the discourse on climate change and its impacts on human mobility. However, it was the Paris Agreement, adopted during COP21, which explicitly referenced migrants and emphasised their vulnerabilities and human rights in relation to climate change adaptation and response. Yet, much has to be done to ensure decisive and collective climate action in relation to migration.

COP26 proved that the world is not on track in limiting the increase of the temperature of the planet at 1.5 degrees and, consequently, in reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Ironically, the countries at the frontline of the climate crisis have the least contribution to it. For example, the Philippines faces an average of 20 typhoons per year and has some of the highest annual disaster displacement figures globally. However, the country only contributes about 0.33% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Similarly, the Pacific small island developing states (SIDS) face the prospect of disappearing islands, exposure to risks from tropical storms, and a rising sea level. Yet, the entire Pacific island region contributes less than 0.03% of the world’s total GHG emissions.

Preventive measures are key

While migration is a potential response to climate change, it is imperative to implement preventive measures like adaptation, mitigation, and resilience-building. At the international level, developed countries, especially those with high carbon emissions, are culpable and therefore should be held liable for their contributions to the climate crisis. As such, there is a need to strengthen and reinforce their responsibility in committing to their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), especially in climate financing to support developing countries respond to climate change and its impacts. When the need arises, developed countries should be urged to assume an active role in interstate consultation mechanisms and regional consultative processes relating to climate migration.

At the country level, measures should include probabilistic climate risk assessment and mapping, which will enable scientific resettlement and relocation planning. Likewise, there should be the adoption and implementation of sustainable urban and regional planning, comprehensive disaster risk reduction management, inclusive green economy and green jobs generation, and overall just transition that fosters multi-stakeholder cooperation among governments, non-government organisations, academe, the private sector, international organisations, and civil society.

"in the event of migration, people should have control over whether, where, when, and how they can move"

Where movement is necessary, governments should ensure safe, orderly, and regular migration as well as the dignified return and reintegration of climate migrants. Likewise, climate migrants should be provided with adaptive social protection measures including healthcare, livelihood opportunities, employment guarantees, cash transfers, and access to justice, among others. Ultimately, the countries of origin have the primary responsibility to ensure a human rights-based approach for the protection of climate migrants and to pave regular migration pathways in the context of climate change.

Human mobility, environment, and climate change have complex interactions with links rarely linear. Environmental drivers of human mobility interact with economic, political, cultural and demographic factors that influence people’s decisions on whether to move or stay. With increasing urgency, there is a need for timely and rights-based green migration governance that recognises migration, in the context of climate change, as the last resort. However, in the event of migration, people should have control over whether, where, when, and how they can move. Likewise, they should be ensured their dignity, safety, and human rights throughout their migration journey.

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