Soft power and vaccine diplomacy: what can we learn?

This article is written by Melodena Stephens, professor of innovation management, Mohammed Bin Rashid School of Government, Dubai

Production, distribution and control of Covid-19 vaccines has created dilemmas and opportunities for states who exercise soft power in their international relations — and even allowed new players to emerge.

Soft power is the ability to make change through persuasion and influence instead of coercion. In the state’s toolbox, it sits between public diplomacy, corporate diplomacy, and statecraft. For these reasons, how much soft power a country can exert depends on its policies, corporations, and citizens, who must work together to ensure that the effect remains positive.

Aid, health, education, entertainment, branding of products, and tourism have all traditionally offered states opportunities to exercise soft power. But the Covid-19 pandemic has distorted what is perceived as influential. In the early stages of the pandemic, many thought vaccine diplomacy would enable particular countries to make substantial geopolitical gains.
 

An opportunity for regional diplomacy

Regional peacekeeping is high on the list for nations seeking to make gains through vaccine diplomacy. But we must keep in mind that when this pandemic ends (and it will end), new geopolitical loyalties will be made.

India is a manufacturer for the COVAX consortium under Gavi, the vaccine alliance, which has 92 countries under its umbrella. It has permission to manufacture the UK’s AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine under the brand name Covishield. Through its Vaccine Maitri (Vaccine Friendship) campaign, which began on January 16, 2021, India has donated vaccines to the United Nations’ ‘blue helmets’ peacekeepers, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, and Nepal. It planned to send more to regional neighbours. In addition to this, through other schemes, India plans to supply 76 countries with 60.4 million doses of its produced vaccine (including its indigenous Covaxin). Bhutan occupies a strategic place between India and China. In a feat of diplomatic adroitness, Bhutan got a grant from India and vaccinated 93% of its population in 16 days.

The European Union also used vaccines in its regional diplomacy strategy when it sent BioNTech/Pfizer doses to non-EU Balkan states to stave off interest from both China and Russia in the region. Finally, the United States, India, Japan, and Australia created the Quad Vaccine Collaboration to counter China’s influence in Southeast Asia.

"Soft power during Covid-19 has changed the political landscape. It has brought to the forefront new patterns of regional alignment and the power of barter during times of crisis. These short-term tactics will have long-term implications on the future."

Bartering for access to vaccines

In a highly uncertain environment, bartering has become the norm for countries seeking to gain access to limited supplies. Early on, South Korea helped the USA access masks and testing kits, and there was a hope that this would lead to a reciprocal arrangement in terms of vaccines. Israel traded data on its population (excluding Palestinians in Occupied Territories) to get a priority shipment of Pfizer-BioNtech vaccines. Israel paid for Sputnik vaccines from Russia for Syria, purportedly for a prisoner release. Both Russia and Israel are heavily involved in the Syrian conflict, which has been ongoing since 2011 and is responsible for displacing more refugees than World War II.

Venezuela has offered oil to inoculate its populations. The United Arab Emirates became a testing ground for the Sinopharm vaccine in September 2020. It became the first Gulf country to produce the vaccines under a joint collaboration with Sinopharm called ‘Hayat-Vax’ in April, 2021, to address the global shortage, especially in the Middle East and Africa.

Countries prioritise their needs over global citizenship

Coronavirus diplomacy has created a ‘us versus them’ dynamic in international relations. Many states made pre-purchase agreements with vaccine producers, such that 51% of the global supply was reserved for 14% of the world population as of November 2020. This led to a policy of prioritization for national needs.

As I mentioned before, India is one of the suppliers for COVAX and has shipped close to 18 million vaccines mostly manufactured by the Serum Institute of India (SII). India is contractually responsible for 64 countries in particular. But its strategy of prioritising vaccine exports to neighbours in pursuit of geopolitical gains — instead of vaccinating its own population first — has backfired. Faced with a new virus strain, it has seen a sharp increase in cases and deaths. India halted or stopped exports to the UK, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco, focusing instead on increasing its 2% vaccination rate. It has reversed its “Make India Self Reliant” policy, and has now allowed other vaccines from Russia, the US, and Europe into the country as the situation spirals out of control.

How Covid-19 changed the soft power landscape

In some ways, vaccine diplomacy has created new opportunities and dilemmas for states that use soft power. The EU’s threat to stop production of the UK’s AstraZeneca vaccine by blocking its EU-based supply chain may lead to more ethnocentric policies for future global disasters. Meanwhile, Australia had shut its border, criminalising the return of its citizens from India to protect those living in Australia. It chose to exclude one segment of citizens by law: albeit in an emergency situation.

We have also seen chaos as local governments grapple with the policies of central governments. When there is a lack of focus on one’s own citizens, other countries rush to exert power. For example, Russia has made entry into Germany, with the state of Bavaria signing a letter of intent for Sputnik vaccines. So we may see the beginning of cities and regions exerting their own brand of soft power across the world.

Soft power during Covid-19 has changed the political landscape. It has brought to the forefront new patterns of regional alignment and the power of barter during times of crisis. These short-term tactics will have long-term implications on the future.

This is part one of a series on Covid-19 and soft power. Stay tuned for part two.

Image credits: Unsplash