Quantum power plays

Ulrich Mans is the Strategic Partnerships Lead at Quantum Delta NL. He has spent two decades working at the intersection of geopolitics, innovation and emerging technologies. Mans’ unique perspective is shaped by his extensive experience working on global technological challenges. Speaking to Apolitical’s Jesse Samasuwo, Mans shares his insights into how geopolitical shifts are influencing quantum computing's global trajectory.

Understanding the geopolitical landscape

Jesse Samasuwo: How is the current geopolitical context impacting quantum computing industry?

Ulrich Mans: We approach this issue from the perspective of a national programme, where we are keen to help startups emerge and scale. But today, being a startup in quantum means you have to deliver globally—and 'global' really means something different nowadays. If you'd asked a tech entrepreneur from 10 or 15 years ago, they'd have told you something completely different about building a global startup. Today, you really need to think carefully: Who am I going to recruit? Where are my investors? Where are my supply-chain partners? Can I actually get the supplies I need on time? Are there potential bottlenecks? These issues are very, very different from the world we had just a decade or so ago.

In the past, it was simpler. You could be a researcher or an entrepreneur with a great idea, put a small team together, and quickly move towards market entry. Now it's not so easy. You need to think through additional layers of complexity—if your co-founder has two passports, for instance, you might want to double-check that second passport because it matters.

Samasuwo: Do businesses have this geopolitical awareness, and are policymakers equipped to support them?

Mans: Awareness has absolutely grown. Five years ago, the response was usually, "Ah, we're just working on technology," and that was it. We've tried to create awareness about these geopolitical issues, but the world itself has also shifted significantly. Anyone who reads newspapers today knows export controls are real. Entrepreneurs must navigate complicated situations. For example, if you're selling to China, you might have clauses in your American contracts that clearly express an opinion or legal rights concerning this. Entrepreneurs have to carefully consider who their partners are, where their market is, and how these factors might change over time.

As for policymakers—yes and no. Often, policymakers begin tackling these issues only when there's direct political pressure or a clear problem. Quantum computing is still somewhat of a green field—it's flagged as a critical technology, but it's not yet central to discussions about technological dependencies, which usually focus on chips, AI, and cloud computing. Our aim has been to get ahead of the curve, helping startups understand the geopolitical landscape early. Encouragingly, we're starting to see policy tools like government-run one-stop-shops where startups and research institutes can ask questions about security. These kinds of initiatives indicate that policymakers are beginning to grapple with the geopolitical complexities that quantum computing startups face.

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National ambition versus global collaboration

Samasuwo: How can countries balance national interests in quantum computing with international collaboration?

Mans: It's certainly a problem that national governments are trying to become less dependent on others. But our vision for a quantum-inspired economy is that no country can pull this off alone. It's important to keep our eye on the ball—we want this technology to deliver meaningful benefits, not just at the national level but for humanity. Quantum technology could improve medicine, enhance weather predictions and advance catalysts for green hydrogen. If quantum delivers these benefits, they shouldn't be limited nationally. There's no template for achieving this balance, but I hope the leading quantum nations—particularly the U.S. and countries in Europe —collaborate internationally around specific sectors. The potential is immense; it's simply too valuable to keep behind closed doors.

Samasuwo: Are there lessons from other technologies for global collaboration?

Mans: The short answer, I'd say, is no. Quantum technology is unfolding in a totally new landscape. Startups, policymakers and investors must approach quantum differently from past technologies. Typically, technologies like semiconductors have known applications. We know exactly what a chip can do, what we need and how to manage it. Quantum is different—we still don't know which hardware will deliver the functionalities we need.

However, we can learn from how we've approached AI, particularly in Europe, where we've often viewed AI as a potential problem rather than an investment opportunity. While guardrails are crucial, it's equally important to highlight how technology can positively impact society. Without demonstrating meaningful benefits, you won't attract investments or develop necessary infrastructure and expertise. You'll end up dependent on others. Quantum timelines are uncertain, but there's agreement it's a critical technology. It's fascinating—and challenging—to create policies for a technology whose exact capabilities and timelines remain unclear.

Samasuwo: How should policymakers navigate this uncertainty?

Mans: Policymakers need a clear vision of what they want the technology to achieve. Identify specific areas where quantum could make a significant impact—such as life sciences or green hydrogen—and strategically allocate resources. Connect government-funded research with societal needs through targeted procurement—for instance, first generation quantum computing hard- and software for energy grid optimisation. Policymakers must be willing to accept some risk. It’s not about embracing complete uncertainty, but rather strategically choosing pathways that align with national priorities and confidently investing in those areas.

Global alliances

Samasuwo: What role do alliances play in advancing quantum computing, and could broader multilateral frameworks emerge?

Mans: I see two elements here. On one side, organisations like UNESCO or the OECD are starting to explore global governance for quantum technology—looking at how to ensure inclusive development so that the quantum economy truly becomes global rather than restricted to a handful of countries. This work is already underway.

On the supply side, or the value chain aspect, those actively developing quantum technology are forming selective coalitions—trust-based communities, possibly defence-related like NATO. Beyond defence, there are certainly collaborations possible, such as within the EU and countries like the UK and Switzerland, which are outside the EU, or Canada, which is a prominent quantum player. For different quantum hardware or software types, or end-user industries like pharmaceuticals, automotive, or logistics, you'll see practical, case-by-case connections. I’d call these "coalitions of the willing." I don't foresee standardised, multilateral mechanisms for quantum—it's likely to remain quite case-specific.

Samasuwo: How do emerging economies and developing countries view the quantum race? How can we avoid a "quantum divide"?

Mans: It's clear that countries with the resources have invested heavily in quantum R&D, making it challenging for others to catch up. A recent report we conducted framed this landscape as producing quantum tech, buying quantum tech, or accessing it remotely—particularly quantum computing. Each approach has merits. The critical point is ensuring people benefit from quantum without becoming overly dependent on just one or two suppliers. Achieving this, however, will be a long journey.

Forward look

Samasuwo: How might shifting geopolitical trends affect the future of quantum computing?

Mans: I don't have a crystal ball, but I think a major turning point will come when the first quantum computer is able to break today’s main cyber security protocols such as RSA encryption - on which most of our digital infrastructure relies for banking, communication etc. This ‘threat’ is a major driver for today’s tech race, as it has major national security implications. Once we arrive at that point, it might not immediately bring breakthroughs in areas like medicine, but it will certainly change momentum and reopen international collaboration. Currently, the race is competitive, with doors closing due to security concerns. But once a quantum computer becomes functional and widely known, I would not be surprised if collaboration expands again. After all, the quantum community is small and interconnected.

Samasuwo: How does the size of the quantum community affect the technology’s development?

Mans: Because the quantum community is still relatively small, people stay closely connected—everyone is watching to see who finds the next piece of the puzzle. There's a lot we still don't understand about the technology, especially in engineering reliable and scalable systems. Initially, it's very open science, though it becomes more closed as commercial interests grow. Ultimately, significant breakthroughs will likely spread quickly due to this tight-knit environment.

Samasuwo: What critical actions should policymakers prioritise now to support the technology?

Mans: Governments can play a key role through public procurement. Demonstrating belief in quantum's potential helps build trust and encourages private investment. Policymakers should decide strategically where quantum can deliver specific benefits. This involves embracing targeted industrial policies to foster technological autonomy and mitigate dependencies. Europe, for instance, is increasingly shifting away from purely market-driven approaches, actively doubling down on "made-in-Europe" technologies. That represents a significant positive shift, offering substantial leverage for quantum technology development.

This interview is part of a series of expert perspectives on key quantum computing issues for policymakers. Learn about quantum computing in more depth, register for a place on upcoming cohorts of our course: Quantum Computing: Understanding the Technology and its Implications, developed collaboration with Google Quantum AI.

Photo credit: Logan Voss.