This article was written by Tom Davies (Manager), Taro Kili (Associate) and Robert Pollock (Director) at Social Finance.
The year is 1991 and South Africa is about to undertake one of the most successful transitions to democracy in history. But for Nelson Mandela and outgoing president FW de Klerk, the future is anything but certain.
Predictions of social conflict and forecasts of economic doom stoked divisive tensions. What they needed was a different way of thinking about the future, a process that would allow them to explore the different worlds they might inadvertently find themselves in. They turned to scenario planning.
The future starts now
It’s a long way from Cape Town to Coventry, and from post-apartheid social upheavals to the Covid-19 crisis in the UK. But at times of extraordinary change and uncertainty, some rules stay the same: the challenges are epic, decisions are irreversible and traditional planning tools aren’t up to the job.
What’s needed is a way to check our assumptions and allow ourselves to imagine that radically different futures are possible and plausible, or we risk entering the future with mindsets, ideas and biases that no longer belong.
Scenario planning is one such approach. It has a rich history. It was a key feature of the Cold War and has been used for decades to understand the impact of different climate futures. In South Africa, Adam Kahane pioneered transformative scenario planning used in Mont Fleur, RSA in 1991 to formulate the post-apartheid transition:
“One of the premises of scenario thinking is that the future is not predetermined and cannot be predicted, which means, therefore, that the choices we make can influence what happens. In a situation where people feel swept along by overwhelming, inevitable currents, this is an empowering world view.”
– Adam Kahane, Reos Partners
The Singaporean government and the UK’s Government Office for Science use scenarios to support strategic planning; Shell uses it to map different climate futures; while US-based Innovation Labs has now developed 16 coronavirus scenarios for the global economy and national governments. However, most of the effort to tackle Covid-19 are being delivered locally.
Councils vs Covid-19
Local councils in the UK are on the front line in the fight against Covid-19. At Social Finance, a not-for-profit social change incubator in the UK, we have adapted different scenario planning methodologies for the current crisis. Building on this, we’ve run exercises asking how councils can meet the needs of their local communities over the next 12 months.
We started preparing in mid-April, then brought together 12 colleagues with operational and policy experience (health, children’s services, mental health, employment, domestic abuse, community partnerships, data and digital) in a series of sessions over the course of a week.
Our aim is to enable colleagues in local government to use the scenarios in their local areas. They offer a space to reflect, to plan for the uncertainties to come but also the opportunities to work more effectively in the future, in particular with local communities and third sector organisations.
Four scenarios, four different worlds
We assumed a gradual reduction in social restrictions and opening up of the economy through to December 2020, and another period of lockdown in early 2021.
It quickly became clear that there were two major uncertainties that are likely to impact the shape and nature of local government’s response over the next 12 months:
- Responsibility: whether the crisis response is directed by the central government, or whether leadership and decision-making can be driven by localities.
- Transformation: whether councils use the crisis to radically transform their operating models versus pressure to quickly return to more familiar practice and restore a sense of normality.
By mapping these uncertainties onto a matrix we were able to outline four different but very plausible futures, as illustrated below.
To boldly go…
What makes scenario planning powerful is not just its ability to open minds to a range of possible futures, but also its impact on decisions that need to be taken here and now and how they may affect future plans.
As an example, here are three issues from our scenario exercise that could have vastly different results depending on the myriad of factors — known and unknown — that play a part.
- Emerging demand: Those preparing now for future demand once social restrictions lift will be on the front foot. Once the Covid-19 crisis is over, people-facing services (early help, children’s and adults social care, domestic abuse, homelessness, young people with special needs etc.) and local health systems are likely to see additional demand overwhelm services, primarily as a result of the lockdown measures. Councils may push their remit to help and prevent wider vulnerability, focus on core services, or even implement ‘easements’ to statutory requirements. Will central government try to direct local activity or allow councils flexibility to meet new needs as they differ from place to place?
- National v local priorities: Central government may come under enormous pressure to launch large social and economic “quick-fix” initiatives over the next 3-12 months. The impact and delivery could soak up significant local resources, or, cut across and undermine local schemes put in place by authorities. Can local government leadership lobby for policy and funding with a coherent voice or will local differences and political criticism embolden a top-down approach from Whitehall?
- Workforce: Staff that can quickly learn and adapt during the crisis will make a huge difference but could experience burnout. There will be tough decisions about ways of working (e.g. virtual) and better ways to communicate with residents. Change fatigue may set in and many staff could find their skills and capabilities challenged by the new normal. Will council senior management develop strategies to support staff in new ways of working and partnerships, and have the capability to create more distributed forms of decision-making?
What next?
Many council teams are working round the clock to meet unprecedented needs, leaving little time to make sense of what might come next and how to plan for those uncertainties. We hope these scenarios are an initial contribution to empower colleagues in local government to adapt to, shape and plan for the new normal that emerges. Key decisions will need to be taken now though what may come next is still quite unknown.
Our scenario planning exercise generated rich insights and perspectives about the different choices councils will face in the coming weeks and months. Far too much to communicate through a short blog. We will publish more detail about the scenarios, the methodology and insights on our project page in the coming days.
If you have any questions or feedback, or would like to test the scenarios in your locality, or for a specific service area, such as children's services or adult social care, please get in touch with Tom Davies, Taro Kili, or Robert Pollock
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(Image Credit: Unsplash)
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