Following astropolitics? If not, you should be

24 January 2024 | The 5th edition of The Apolitical View by Apolitical CEO and Co-Founder Robyn Scott. Subcribe to the newsletter

In this week's edition:

• Japan goes lunar in the new space race
• The important generosity of listening to opposing views
• New AI guidance from the UK and the World Economic Forum

More attention should be paid to space’s massive and near-term geopolitical and economic implications — and policymakers and diplomats should get ahead of the game.

In 2024 alone, 10 missions are heading to the Moon, laying the groundwork for building a permanent lunar base. Yet the new space race and the Moon economy remain relatively under-appreciated forces shaping geopolitics in the coming decades. In my view, government officials outside of specialist space circles need to start paying much more attention to astropolitics, especially as space technologies have the potential to flip from niche to mainstream in an echo of the trajectory of AI. As recently as 2022, AI seemed to many the preserve of nerds and sci-fi, and then, suddenly, it was everywhere, changing everything.

Space enthusiasts like myself might have watched the live stream of Japan's space agency making its first soft Moon landing with an unmanned spacecraft on Friday. To put the achievement in perspective, almost half of all attempts to land on the Moon have failed. Just a few days before the Japanese lander successfully touched down, private company Astrobotic’s faulty Peregrine rocket was rerouted back to Earth for atmospheric destruction after a fuel leak. That’s the third failed moon mission in the last 14 months.

Government programmes like the United States’ Artemis missions are pushing to find a way to successfully live and work on the Moon as a precursor for doing the same on Mars. Space is also playing out interestingly in an increasingly multipolar world. In 2019, NATO foreign ministers agreed to recognise space as a new operational domain. China has launched satellites for countries including Ethiopia, Nigeria, Algeria, Sudan and Egypt. And some new players in space are making big bets: the United Arab Emirates, for example, became the fifth country in the world to successfully reach and orbit Mars, and the African Union has launched a space strategy.

Ready or not, astropolitics is a new domain of geopolitical strategy. Governments will need to demonstrate considerable leadership in the coming decades if the world is to seize the huge opportunities of space while managing the downsides of doing so. Some of the hardest questions relate to inclusion and inequality: if two or three rich nations control access to space technology, occupy Lagrange points (space’s parking lots) and dominate low Earth orbit (key for satellites), what are the implications down on Earth? What does this mean for low-income countries especially? The emerging geopolitical complexities of space could potentially reshape alliances and tensions on Earth.

As they’re rapidly having to do with AI, governments and multilateral organisations will need to establish better frameworks for space governance, fair resource allocation and conflict resolution in the very near future.

Amidst all of this, the International Space Station remains a relative marvel of global collaboration. Despite occasional tensions over the last 25 years, governments have fostered an almost unique environment of technological innovation on the International Space Station. Joint space missions have shown how rapidly we can push the boundaries of human knowledge and capability when we harness the power of peaceful international cooperation.

The Lunar Economy is a strategic economic frontier. Shifting humanity’s view of the Moon from an ancient celestial body to another potential hub for economic activity — worth an estimated USD $170 billion by 2040 — is going to draw strong reactions. But by investing in lunar research and development, governments and the private sector are opening new frontiers in science, medicine, transport, the green transition, mining, telecommunications and even food production. The race between governments, often in partnership with private sector organisations, to harness the Moon’s resources, develop lunar infrastructure and establish sustainable lunar habitats could also benefit humans and societies on Earth by accelerating investment in new methods, materials and inventions, as we saw with the first space race.

Robyn Scott

Apolitical CEO & Co-Founder

My recommendations

• For a great introduction to astropolitics and the geopolitical implications down below, I recommend Tim Marshall’s 'The Future of Geography'.
• I spend a lot of time thinking about how we can live up to our name, Apolitical, and I find it particularly helpful to listen to debates between people with differing views. A recent favourite is Sam Harris interviewing the talk platform TED’s Chris Anderson on his new book 'Infectious Generosity'. The interview begins with a discussion about recent culture wars involving TED. Chris makes the point that in today’s world, listening to those with opposing views — or “bridging” — is an important type of generosity.

In our diary this week

Not quite the four-day workweek. As always, we have many Apolitical community events coming up. It’s also a short week for the Apolitical team because we give every team member the last Friday of each month off. It’s a hugely popular policy: not as hard as the four-day workweek to implement, but it enables a genuine reset and provides everyone with a breather. We find people especially like being able to plan for long weekends.

And finally...

The UK government published its long-awaited guidance for using generative AI. Structured around 10 principles, I was especially heartened to note Principle 9: “You have the skills and expertise that you need to build and use generative AI”, encouraging public servants to start upskilling immediately. Apolitical’s four-hour course, Understand How AI Impacts You and Your Government is an introduction to generative AI, designed exclusively for government, and is a good place to start for any public servant.

Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum's AI Governance Alliance — of which I’m a member — shared its first series of briefing papers. Incorporating input from 250+ leaders around the world, these provide guidance for the responsible development, adoption and overall governance of generative AI. Would welcome feedback!

Got thoughts, feedback or ideas for what you'd like to see in this newsletter? Send them directly to me or leave a comment below.