Extinction events and how to avoid them

23 May 2024 | The 16th edition of The Apolitical View by Apolitical CEO and Co-Founder Robyn Scott. Subcribe to the newsletter

In this week's edition:

• The difficulty of hitting the magic 2.1 fertility rate
• Apolitical is co-hosting the World Bank’s Public Administration Global Forum
• Have you heard of Pheasant Island?

Few learning experiences are as interesting or sobering as being confronted with an idea you thought you understood well, only to realise you had barely grasped the elephant’s toenail. I was reminded of this last week at an event co-hosted by Apolitical, in partnership with the Office of Strategic Affairs in the Abu Dhabi government and Salzburg Global Seminar.

The annual event brings together a few dozen senior leaders in government with a particular interest in strategy and foresight to contemplate the future. Governments represented included several from Europe and Asia. Led by these participants, we barely made it five minutes into a discussion of major strategic challenges before population decline came up as a topic of conversation.

It’s a subject I thought I knew__ — not least because I recently had a third child which has made me reflect on how staggeringly difficult it is for working women to deliver (literally and figuratively) the magical 2.1 average babies needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next. I’m lucky enough to have excellent childcare support, including my mother living with me. Even so, the tradeoffs and tiredness often feel impossible.

But the government officials at the event spoke in terms that I had not heard before: the language of “extinction”, with undertones of fear and despair that were striking even by the standards of sober policy types.

One participant did some quick maths. If your replacement rate is 0.8 (South Korea’s is now at 0.72) and you start with a generation of 100 people, you’ll have 40 children. You’ll then have 16 grandchildren, followed by just 6 great-grandchildren, meaning you’ll be extinct in four generations. The Lancet recently published a report showing that, by 2050, 155 of the world’s 204 countries will not have a high enough fertility rate to sustain population size. By 2100, this will increase to 198.

The six countries not facing the threat of extinction are, instead, dealing with the challenge of managing unsustainable population growth. Niger’s population, for example, is set to triple by 2050, from 24 million to 68 million. We are heading towards what has been referred to as a “demographically divided world,” with a few low-income countries growing exponentially while many high-income countries manage rapid population decline.

Outside of mass immigration from countries with high fertility rates — and the fears of political suicide this strikes in governments — policy solutions are failing, and not for lack of effort. South Korea has been experimenting with solutions from baby vouchers and extended parental leave to embedding cultural change for two decades. The problem is getting so acute that President Yoon Suk Yeol is seeking permission to launch a new Ministry focused on the topic, as Japan has already done. In Serbia, first-home buyers with a child can receive up to US$22,000 in subsidies for their purchase. Yet fertility continues to decline. Even in ultra-supportive Sweden, women are not having enough babies. The growing list of countries below replacement value is striking and includes Malaysia, Indonesia, India and China.

Later in the strategy event, I chaired an interactive session on disruptive technologies. The group was split into smaller groups tasked with rapidly coming up with governance principles for disruptive technologies that minimise harms and maximise gains to humanity. The technologies ranged from AI and quantum computing to synthetic biology and artificial wombs. We had a lively discussion for each technology. But against the backdrop of demographic concerns, artificial wombs (something I’ve written about before) provoked the greatest passion.

We’re already growing sheep in artificial wombs. In less than a generation we’ll probably be able to grow humans. And, in this next generation, extinction events will be much closer. It’s not hard to imagine a panicked state deciding to trial growing new citizens. The group discussing how to manage this risk (and its potential dystopian consequences) came up with the following interesting governance principle: a human — not an institution — should always be responsible for the creation of another human being.

Robyn Scott

Apolitical CEO & Co-Founder

In my diary

I have just returned from the Govtech 4 Impact (G4I) World Congress in Madrid, Spain, where I had the pleasure of moderating a panel titled "Knowledge, Skills, and Connection for the 21st Century Government." G4I brings together a diverse group of key stakeholders — from ministers and mayors to academics, startups and large corporations. As part of Apolitical's Government AI Campus, we also hosted a side event titled "Building the AI-Ready Government". The key takeaways on what it takes to build an AI ready government have been summarised eloquently by my colleague Leo on LinkedIn.

Next week, I’m heading to Washington D.C. with several colleagues to participate in the Public Administration Global Forum at the World Bank, co-hosted by Apolitical. This year's theme, "Transforming Governments for a Livable Planet," aligns closely with our mission to build 21st century governments that work for people and the planet. We'll discuss the essential training needed to equip governments to address 21st-century challenges, including the climate crisis. Get in touch if you’ll be there.

And finally...

Have you heard of Pheasant Island (human and pheasant population: 0), the tiny island which switches governments from France to Spain and back again every six months? Until this week, I hadn’t either. This change in governments is part of the important Treaty of the Pyrenees that’s been in place since 1659 when the island was the setting for crucial negotiations that ended the Franco-Spanish War.

Got thoughts, feedback or ideas for what you'd like to see in this newsletter? Send them directly to me or leave a comment below.