This report, produced by the United Nations Environment Programme, provides a comprehensive assessment of the gap between current national climate pledges and the emissions reductions required to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. Drawing on the latest emissions data, nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and modelled pathways, the report evaluates global progress a decade after the adoption of the Paris Agreement. It finds that while climate commitments have helped lower projected warming compared to a decade ago, current policies and pledges remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C. Ultimately, the report offers policymakers an evidence-based overview of where global climate action stands today and highlights the scale and urgency of emissions reductions needed over the coming decade.

Who wrote this report?

The report was produced by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), with contributions from an international team of leading climate scientists and policy experts. The assessment draws on research from academic institutions, climate research centres, and international organisations, and is overseen by an independent steering committee to ensure scientific rigour, transparency, and geographical balance.

Best quote

“Climate action is not philanthropy – it is national self-interest.” — Inger Andersen, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme

Key takeaways

  • A Persistent Emissions Gap: Current national climate pledges remain far off track. Under unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs), global emissions in 2030 exceed pathways compatible with 1.5°C by around 20 GtCO₂e and 2°C by roughly 12 GtCO₂e.
  • Paris Targets Remain Out of Reach: Based on policies currently in place, global warming is projected to reach up to 2.8°C this century. Even full implementation of existing NDCs would only limit warming to around 2.3–2.5°C, well above agreed global temperature goals.
  • Emissions Continue to Rise: Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024, a 2.3% increase from the previous year. Emissions growth occurred across all major sectors, signalling that global emissions have yet to peak.
  • Delay Increases Long-Term Costs: The report highlights that postponing mitigation increases dependence on costly and uncertain carbon dioxide removal technologies, while locking in high-emissions infrastructure and narrowing feasible pathways to 1.5°C.
  • Progress, but Not at the Required Speed: Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, projected warming has fallen from nearly 4°C to just under 3°C, demonstrating that climate action has had an effect. However, emissions reductions over the next decade must accelerate sharply, particularly among G20 countries, which account for around 77% of global emissions.

What’s in this report?

This report examines a central question in global climate policy: how far do current national climate pledges and policies go in closing the gap between projected greenhouse gas emissions and the reductions required to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement? To address this, the report brings together the latest global emissions data, nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and modelled mitigation pathways, assessing progress ten years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement.

The core of the report analyses global emissions trends up to 2024 and evaluates new and updated NDCs submitted by countries ahead of the next climate ambition cycle. It compares emissions outcomes under different scenarios, including current policies, unconditional and conditional NDCs, and long-term net-zero pledges. In doing so, it quantifies the size of the “emissions gap” in 2030 and 2035 and translates this gap into projected temperature outcomes over the course of the century.

Using integrated assessment models and scenario analysis, the report shows that while climate action over the past decade has reduced projected warming compared to pre-Paris trajectories, current commitments remain insufficient to meet agreed temperature goals. It also highlights how delayed mitigation increases reliance on uncertain and costly carbon dioxide removal technologies and raises the risks associated with temperature overshoot. Overall, the report serves as a data-driven stocktake of global climate action, offering policymakers a clear picture of where the world stands and how far current efforts fall short.

Why should you read this report?

This report provides a clear and authoritative snapshot of the state of global climate action at a critical moment. Rather than focusing on individual policies or technologies, it offers a system-level assessment of whether existing commitments are collectively sufficient to meet internationally agreed goals. For policymakers, it replaces fragmented national perspectives with a shared evidence base on global progress and remaining gaps.

For public servants and decision-makers, the report is a reminder that ambition and implementation matter as much as long-term pledges. It highlights the consequences of delayed action and underscores the importance of strengthening near-term emissions reductions to avoid higher economic, social and environmental costs in the future. In this sense, the report functions as both a progress check and a strategic guide for the next decade of climate policy.

Who is this report for?

This report is a valuable resource for policymakers, public servants, and climate negotiators involved in the design and implementation of national and international climate policy. It is particularly relevant for officials working on climate targets, emissions reduction strategies, and long-term development planning, who require a clear understanding of how current commitments align with global temperature goals.

The report will also be useful for senior decision-makers in finance, energy, and development ministries, as well as international organisations and multilateral institutions seeking an evidence-based overview of global climate progress. By translating complex modelling and emissions data into clear policy-relevant insights, the report supports informed decision-making across levels of government.

Read the full report here